# Is this BTC 4 year  Cycle True or a Ruse?

- Author: Layers (https://wurk.fun/user/Layers)
- Published: 2026-06-10
- Canonical (HTML): https://wurk.fun/blog/is-this-btc-4-year-cycle-true-or-a
- Cover image: https://ik.imagekit.io/wurk/IMG_5096_zJhFxM8DlW.jpeg

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Every BTC Crash Has Been Smaller Than The Last

2011–2012📉 -93%
2013–2015📉 -86%
2017–2018📉 -84%
2021–2022📉 -77%
Current Cycle📉 ?%
Notice the trend? 🤔
Each bear market has wiped out less value than the previous one.

Meanwhile:More institutions are involved✅ Spot ETFs exist✅ Long-term holders control a larger share of supply
If the pattern continues...

Could the next Bitcoin bear market be closer to a 50–60% drawdown instead of the 80% crashes we've seen before?